Ballarat is among the top five growth areas in regional Victoria, with the population projected to increase by 60% to 160,000 by 2040. As the population grows, the demographics of the community and family structures are both forecast to change. Supporting housing developments is required to cater for these changes. As the population increases and ages, maximising the value extracted from existing and new infrastructure will be crucial. Urban growth also has impacts such as increased runoff, which increases the importance of best practice integrated water management.

Growth impacts surrounding rural and agricultural lands. There is significant risk that ad hoc land use change can compromise the viability and growth of agriculture within the area. Over the long term, issues of land and soil quality will become increasingly important as land is considered for either commercial or natural uses.

Meeting the increased irrigation demand of crops and accommodating new horticulture crops may be hindered by the availability of a secure irrigation water supply. Most of the irrigation water in the region is sourced from groundwater and the Bungaree Groundwater Management Area is already over-allocated and a declared water supply protection area. This situation is unlikely to ease in the future as Ballarat’s urban demand grows along with its population and climate change results in less rainfall and potentially less recharge to the aquifer. This will drive greater efficiency in irrigation techniques and the development of more drought-tolerant plants. Rising land values surrounding growing urban population centres, will also force a shift to high value, more intensive agricultural enterprises. Ballarat is well placed due to a history of manufacturing and innovation to contribute to food resilience by value adding to the food and fibre sector.

Floodplain management is an ongoing challenge in Ballarat, as is the case for many built-up areas where original European settlements were close to wetlands and creeks to have ready access to water. As a consequence, some of the developed areas of Ballarat are flood-prone. The costs of flooding to community wellbeing and local economies are expected to increase as a consequence of change in the frequency and intensity of significant rainfall events under climate change. Management of these challenges requires continuous improvement in understanding flood risks and the application of risk reduction measures such as planning controls.

There is a need to prioritise ‘liveability’ that reflects the quality and amenity of the built and natural environments. This includes building community resilience to the impacts of climate change. Intermittent periods of drought, water restrictions and periods of extreme heat will put the street trees, open spaces, creeks and waterways under increasing stress. Better recognition, management and support for the natural environment are required to maintain the highly valued ‘Ballarat lifestyle’, including open spaces. As more people move into both established and new residential areas, the distribution and diversity of open space will be a significant challenge. The natural resources of the municipality have already been compromised by the historic land uses and subsequent urban development. There is a need to undertake an assessment of how best to manage remnant areas for biodiversity conservation. At present there is insufficient data and analysis on biodiversity within the area to guide decision making.